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The Korea of the North comes to lose face

Has the Korea of the North it become a nuclear power

This test shows that the Korea of the North has the ability to blow up a gear, which is likely to plutonium. But he gave no indication on the ability of Pyongyang put a nuclear warhead on a missile. It is not certain that the North Korea is already able to this last step towards the acquisition of the status of nuclear power.

After the first North Korean nuclear test, is there a risk of proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region

The risk is not immediate, but there are in the medium term. The Korea of the South has a very ambivalent attitude towards the North Korean nuclear, and there is no pressure of opinion so that it expands the bomb. For Taiwan, in the event of collapse of the nuclear non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), there is no doubt that the island would reconsider the nuclear option.

What consequence for the Japan

For several years, the nuclear debate in the Japan has been the force. With the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, this debate cannot gain in intensity, because, time, July missile tests and the nuclear test, that put the North Korean nuclear threat of the order of the virtual to the real agenda. Of course, the Japan will not to start tomorrow in the manufacture of a nuclear weapon. But, to the extent it has certain technological capabilities, as well as a large stockpile of plutonium, it would not long to take the step if it and decide.

Can the Iran quickly take the path North Korea

Quickly, not. What is known of the Iranian nuclear program encourages suggests that Tehran is in need of about two years to get to the bomb. However, it is certain that the Iranians watch very carefully, and long, the way in which the international community deals with the North Korean issue. Any weakness on its part to Pyongyang would be an encouragement to Tehran to go forward.

Can how we expect from China

It is in a difficult position. This test is a real arm of honour in Beijing and a demonstration of independence on the part of the Korea of the North. China had acquired in recent years a significant weight of mediator in this crisis. The Korea of the North comes to lose face. Rest on whether Beijing will want to harden its position against a neighbour which it fears the collapse. An implosion of the Korea of the North have indeed for immediate consequence the flight of North Korean masses North of the Yalu River natural border between the two countries to the risk of destabilizing the Chinese region whose population is largely of Korean origin.

The North Korean test marks the end of the non-proliferation regime

No, not at this stage. The Korea of the North announced its withdrawal from the NPT in January 2003. Test driven by Pyongyang has no direct effect on the non-proliferation regime. But, unlike the India, and Pakistan, which were never part of the NPT, the North Korea in withdrew. This has created a dangerous precedent, since it was the first time that a country was withdrawing from the Treaty. In other words, if the Iran were to one day mimic the Korea of the North, then a new wave of nuclear proliferation would be fear. The Treaty would not survive a second withdrawal. There would then, in particular in Asia and the Middle East, to a true nuclear race.