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A scenario that the two strings do not support

For TF1, the descent to the underworld continues. Eight days before the publication of its quarterly accounts, the prepared bad news market by launching yesterday, for the first time since its privatization in 1987, a severe warning on its results in the first quarter. Unthinkable situation a few months ago, the audio-visual subsidiary of Bouygues now anticipates an operational loss of 10 to 15 million euros over the period, where analysts projected a profit of EUR 16 million. The net result remains, positive 5-10 million, but at a level much lower than the 20 million expected by the consensus.

In an advertising market chilled by the crisis, the chain is deserted by the advertisers. Advertising revenues in the first quarter plunged by 27 to EUR 321 million. In a context also dark, TF1 indicates that the Board of Directors on 13 May will stop the hypotheses of turnover for 2009. The first estimate of a 9 decline at the consolidated level advanced at the beginning of year by Nonce Paolini, the pattern of TF1, could be questioned, the decline recorded by the group in the start of the year being twice as high at 18.

Those who wondered if "TF1 can become a machine to lose money", the chain has shown that it was possible, at least for a short period. Until then, the sometimes recorded losses during the hollow of the period summer (July-September quarter). Here, the string stumbling on a usually more good first quarter. Throughout the year, everything will depend on now the advertising crisis. April would be less disastrous than the first three months of 2009. To reassure, TF1 said elsewhere that his plan savings of 60 million euros "will produce its effects gradually throughout the year." The stock exchange has also finally rather responded well to this update because the title rose yesterday 3.78 to 7.42 EUR.

"Lower prices".

The economic crisis does however not explain to her single all the disappointments of the. M6 has better stood, with a decline in advertising revenues on its antenna limited to 11 in the first quarter. And the M6 Group turnover has remained stable to 327.4 million euros (read below). Before the shareholders meeting yesterday in the General Assembly, its CEO, Nicolas de Tavernost, acknowledged however that operating income (Ebitda) will be indented on the period. Since the end of 2008, the report force completely reversed for advertisers: crisis, spots on some segments of the market is in overcapacity. Arrived at the wrong time for chains, advertising deregulation (elongation at 9 minutes of advertising per hour against 6 minutes before time time of clock and establishment of the second cut) has increased the imbalance in the beginning of this year. Nicolas de Tavernost thus estimated that 60 occupancy of the screens on M6. "That creates a decline in prices," admits.

In TF1, the phenomenon is amplified by the difficulty that has "chain leadership" to retain a viewer in more volatile. "The chain undergoes head-on the crisis and the fragmentation of the TV media, without free DTT growth relay", summarizes an observer. Where the strategic stake for the one to buy TMC and NT1, two generalist channels of the free Group AB including TF1 TNT is already shareholder.

In April, for the 18th straight month, the audience share of TF1 also declined on a year. It is established to 26.3, compared to 27.2 in April 2008. And 26 are no longer a floor. On the week of 20 to April 26, 2009, the chain had worst performance ever recorded with a 25.2 audience share. "Our problem is not the hearing, but our difficulty to monetize the", argues the. Spots worth more the same price when the hearing exceeded 30 in the eyes of advertisers. In some media plans, TF1 is now excluded.

To explain its woes, the chain of the Bouygues group don't forget to also point its advertising turnover tax adopted by Parliament at the beginning of the year for France television. Nicolas de Tavernost elsewhere also complained of the puncture, encrypting "9 to 10 million euros" the foreseeable impact of the measure on its accounts in 2009. In the current context, some observers believe that in the aftermath of the publication of their accounts semi-annual necessarily receding TF1 and M6 will lead the Government campaign to seek a moratorium on this tax. A scenario that the two strings do not support. For the moment.